China39;s home prices to fall slower, stabilise by 2026
Analysts see recovery in home sales in major cities, but confidence crisis persists
BEIJING, Nov 29 Reuters China39;s home prices are expected to fall at a slower pace this year and next, and stabilise in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, as a slew of support measures to reverse a yearslong property slump start to bear fruit.
Analysts in the poll now expect home prices to fall 6.0 in 2024, versus a 8.5 decline tipped in a previous survey in August. In October new home prices fell the most yearonyear since 2015, but monthonmonths falls have narrowed.
Prices are likely to dip 2.0 in 2025, and rise 1.6 in 2026 compared to 0.0 in the last survey.
China has been scaling up efforts to arrest the realestate downturn that began in 2021, which has squeezed financing for local governments and discouraged home owners and businesses tied to a sector that once accounted for a quarter of the country39;s economic activity.
Policymakers changed rules for the property sector at the end of September, including a cut in the minimum down payment ratio to 15 for all housing categories and a relaxation in home purchase restrictions.
The finance ministry rolled out tax breaks to spur demand in November. But a broader consumer and investor confidence crisis has kept prospective buyers39; wallets glued shut.
The decline in home prices in the current real estate cycle is mainly influenced by supply and demand, and home purchase…