Indirect impact of U.S. tariffs could be substantial
Uncertainty over credit rating baselines has increased
Poland seen less exposed due to more diversified economy
Central Europe growth outlook constructive, barring shocks
Political landscape could complicate deficit cuts in Romania

BUDAPEST, Dec 12 Reuters Central European credit ratings, most of which carry a stable or positive outlook, are quite resilient, but the way the new U.S. administration delivers on its preelectoral promises could pose a challenge, SP Global said on Thursday.

Under some scenarios, higher U.S. trade tariffs on the European Union and higher uncertainty over the RussiaUkraine war might deter central Europe39;s growth via weaker external demand in western Europe, it said in a report titled the Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Rating Outlook for 2025.

The Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia are considered the most exposed through deep ties with the German car sector as suppliers and manufacturing bases for German brands. Poland, the region39;s largest economy, is likely to be less affected due to lower reliance on exports and a more diversified economy.

The ratings are quite resilient. Our baselines could be tested by the way the new U.S. administration delivers on its preelectoral promises, Karen Vartapetov, lead analyst for CEE CIS Sovereign Ratings told Reuters.

Indirect spillovers through weakness in advanced Europe, including Germany, could be quite substantial, he said….