BENGALURU, July 21 Reuters The U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for another 75 basis point rate hike rather than a larger move at its meeting next week to quell stubbornlyhigh inflation as the likelihood of a recession over the next year rises to 40, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Inflation hit 9.1 in June, another fourdecade high, stoking expectations the Fed, having only just shifted gears from 50 to 75 basis points at the last meeting, would act even more forcefully and go for a 100 basis point hike.

But some of the more hawkish Fed officials in public remarks have favored a 75 basis point hike, tempering those expectations in recent days. Last month39;s 75 bps hike was the first of that size since 1994. read more

The July 1420 Reuters poll found 98 of 102 economists expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points at the end of the July 2627 meeting to 2.252.50. The remaining four said they expected a 100 basis point hike.

Fed funds futures are pricing only around a oneinfive chance of a full percentage point hike, putting those expectations largely in line with the poll results.

But what is already the most aggressive rate hike path in decades brings with it heightened recession worries.

Median predictions from the latest poll showed a 40 probability of a U.S. recession over the coming year, with a 50 chance of one happening within two years. That was a significant upgrade from 25 and 40 in a June poll.

There seems to be an inflation tax on the consumer and…