Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

The Bank of England demonstrated that its not what you do but what you say that affects the markets recently as we saw earlier in the week with the Reserve Bank of Australia. The BoE hiked by 50 bps, the largest such increase since 1995, but warned that the UK economy is likely to enter a fivequarter recession from Q4, which just happens to be when inflation is likely to rise to over 13.

Although the FX market clearly focused on the recession forecast, the rates market didnt seem impressed either way. UK rate expectations were little changed base rate in June of next year is now forecast at 2.88 vs 2.92 on Wednesday. Meanwhile gilts were volatile initially but wound up little changed. Yet the pound weakened notably. Following the decision, GBP USD plunged by some 1, to an intraday low of 1.2066, but the pair recovered as the NY session progressed due to an increasingly weak USD and eventually pared most of its selloff. GBPUSD is this morning down about 0.10 from where it was this time yesterday. EURGBP however remained at the top of its range as GBP failed to recover against the resurgent euro.

The big move in rates yesterday was in Europe, where yields declined at both ends of the curve. The reason is shrouded in mystery there doesnt seem to have been any trigger. It looks like the European markets were just catching up to the US markets movement late on Wednesday.

Lower European rates didnt hold back EUR, which was the…