MUMBAI, Aug 22 Reuters The Indian rupee39;s fair value is around 80 against the U.S. dollar, given the country39;s balance of payment challenges and the Reserve Bank of India39;s interventions, JPMorgan39;s head of emerging Asia local markets strategy said.
India39;s balance of payments, a measure of how much the country relies on money from abroad, has been squeezed by a record trade deficit that has prompted economists to revisit their current account deficit and balance of payments BoPprojections.
India39;s CAD current account deficit is tracking 4 of the GDP, historically a wide number. If left unchecked, this should reflect on the price of the rupee. But things are not left unchecked, and RBI has been managing the rupee, Arindam Sandilya told Reuters in an interview.
Taking a holistic view on India39;s forexrelevant BoP position and the RBI, we reckon the fair value of the rupee is around 80.
India39;s foreign exchange reserves have declined to 570.7 billion from a record high of about 642 billion in September 2021 as the RBI has stepped in to bolster the rupee. Still, the local currency is down 7.5 in 2022, and on track for its worst annual performance in four years.
The rupee was trading at 79.85 per U.S. dollar on Monday, within a whisker of the record low of 80.0650 reached last month.
A rebound in inflows into Indian stocks in the past few days, with foreign investors turning buyers for the first time in nine months, has helped the rupee to an extent….