BENGALURUJOHANNESBURG, Oct 3 Reuters Most emerging market currencies are set to trade in tight ranges or pare some of the yeartodate gains in the next three months after the U.S. Federal Reserve curbed expectations for aggressive rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll.
After enduring significant losses last year and in the first half of 2024, emerging market currencies made notable gains against the dollar in recent weeks after the Fed reduced borrowing costs by 50 basis points.
However, the rally in emerging market currencies is nearing its end after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the U.S. central bank would likely maintain quarterpercentagepoint interest rate cuts moving forward.
Rising geopolitical tensions have also steered investors towards the safehaven dollar and away from riskprone emerging markets.
The broader foreign exchange poll projected the dollar to hold steady in coming months.
Most emerging markets currencies were forecast to trade in a range or weaken slightly in the next three months, according to the Sept. 30 to Oct. 3 survey of 59 foreign exchange strategists.
We are not expecting…any further major gains in the EMFX spot versus the dollar. We are expecting a relatively even mix of winners and losers against the dollar by yearend, said Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging markets research at Societe Generale.
We don39;t think the Fed funds path will climb much higher from here, so that limits the tailwind for the dollar. But…