Trump39;s policies could increase volatility in region, with focus on Mexico
Harris win may lower tariff risk, benefiting EM assets in general
Remittance tax of 10 would hurt Central America

Oct 21 Latin America is anxiously counting the days to Nov. 5, when U.S. voters will choose between relative continuity under Vice President Kamala Harris or a return to policies that triggered volatility in the region39;s largest markets and economies under former president Donald Trump.

Trade and tariffs, as well as monetary policy39;s effect on global interest rates, are likely the largest avenues for the election to jolt the U.S.39;s neighboring region. Washington39;s economic war with China could particularly rock Mexico and boost Brazil, especially in a titfortat scenario.

On a broader level, a Trump victory would likely send shockwaves through the region, potentially putting the squeeze on some currencies and central banks even as countries that are more tied to commodities or trade with China could emerge largely unscathed.

While the Biden administration did not roll back tariffs imposed by Trump on China, Harris39; plan to keep them roughly as they are makes her a dove toward th

China will also hover over talks to revise the U.S., Mexico and Canada trade deal USMCA, scheduled for 2026, as some goods including from Chinese companies39; transplant factories could stop being treated as Mexican. Automotive sector content requirements, known as rules of origin, are likely…