BEIJING, Oct 29 Reuters China39;s factory activity likely contracted in October for a sixth month, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, but by the tiniest of margins, backing officials39; optimism that recent fresh stimulus will get the world39;s No.2 economy back on track.
A Reuters poll of 30 economists estimated the official purchasing managers39; index PMI will come in at 49.9, up from September39;s reading of 49.8, but just below the 50point threshold that separates contraction from activity.
The mood in the manufacturing sector has been depressed for months by tumbling producer prices and dwindling orders.
That said, although China39;s exports, a lone bright spot, faded last month and the economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, officials anticipate stimulus announced in late September will come through and take effect.
Based on our comprehensive assessment, the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the stabilisation and recovery trend that occurred in September, Sheng Laiyun, the deputy head of China39;s statistics bureau, told reporters following the third quarter data release.
China economists have previously pointed to how sentimentbased surveys often lag behind hard data indicators.
And analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit, Standard Chartered and Citigroup were among the 10 institutions that forecast the 19 trillion economy broke back into expansion this month, returning PMI readings of 50.4, 50.2 and…