Nov 4 Reuters Donald Trump is a clear favorite to beat Kamala Harris that39;s if you put your faith in prediction markets, the latest frontier for the indefatigable crypto speculator.

On the eve of the U.S. election, billions of crypto dollars are chasing bets on the two candidates on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Those sites respectively gave Trump about a 5743 and 5149 lead over Harris as of Monday, in contrast to neckand neck opinion polls.

Polymarket, the busiest of these platforms, which have largely sprung up over the past five years, has seen about 3.1 billion in trading volume on wagers on the winner of the presidential vote.

Kalshi, a U.S. CFTCregulated site, has seen nearly 197 million in trading on its election outcome contract. Its secondlargest betting contract, on the electoral college margin, has drawn 33.8 million.

Participants and watchers are divided over whether such markets, where prices offered are shaped by the weight of bets, are a robust leading indicator or are distorted by large bets and reflect the views of a niche crypto club.

Elon Musk, for one, has said betting markets are more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line and mainstream news sites are citing their odds. Many people aren39;t convinced, though.

Your average voter isn39;t spending time or money on prediction markets those platforms are being dominated by cryptonative users, and those users are voting for Trump, said Michael Cahill, CEO of Web3focused…