BENGALURUBEIJING, Nov 20 Reuters The United States could impose nearly 40 tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, potentially slicing growth in the world39;s secondbiggest economy by up to 1 percentage point.
The poll, the first on China39;s economy by Reuters since Donald Trump39;s sweeping election victory on Nov. 5, also predicts that the Presidentelect will resist starting off with blanket 60 tariffs on Chinese goods.
Trump, who is due to take office in January, pledged during campaigning to slap hefty tariffs on Chinese imports as part of a package of America First trade measures, causing unease in Beijing and heightening growth risks for China.
Not only are the threatened tariff rates much higher than the 7.525 levied on China during his first term, the economy is also in a much more vulnerable position given the prolonged property downturn, debt risks and weak domestic demand.
A poll of more than 50 economists by Reuters from Nov. 1320 showed a strong majority, both in and outside mainland China, expects Trump to impose the tariffs by early next year, with a median estimate of 38 and projections ranging from 15 to 60.
Most respondents said they do not expect blanket 60 tariffs on Chinese goods in early 2025 as this could accelerate inflation within the United States.
We expect the new U.S. administration to bring back the original plan of Trump 1.0, ANZ39;s chief economist Raymond Yeung said, estimating that the…