Dec 27 Reuters The Australian central bank39;s rate trajectory and its effect on inflation will decide if Australian bank shares can eke out growth in 2025 after a bumper year that has left valuations stretched, analysts said.

The financial subindex, composed mainly of the country39;s biggest lenders, has risen almost 30 this year to mark its best yearly gain since 2009, outpacing an 8 gain in the SPASX 200 benchmark index.

The sector39;s bumper performance was a result of inflows from superannuation funds and retail investors, who found comfort in the banks39; ability to provide high capital returns in a weak economic environment.

Stable earnings performance and strong asset quality have pushed more funds into banks, while the impact of China39;s growth prospects on commodity prices saw a revaluation across the materials sector, multiple analysts said.

Given the valuation stretch in the bank sector any fatigue in flow from what has been the dominant driver this year could be a trigger for multiple derate back to more normal valuation levels, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

They added that their model portfolio positioning remains linked to a scenario that can see an ultimate rotation away from Australian banks and broaden into other sectors including resources.

The country39;s biggest lender Commonwealth Bank of Australia jumped 39 and became the most valuable company on the local bourse.

CBA last traded at A155.12 per share, much higher than the average 12month…