China Q4 GDP seen growing 5.0 yy, vs 4.6 in Q3
GDP growth seen at 4.5 in 2025, 4.2 in 2026
Inflation seen at 0.8 in 2025, 1.4 in 2026
C.bank seen cutting key policy rate by 10 bps in Q1
C.bank seen cutting RRR by at least 25 bps in Q1

BEIJING, Jan 14 Reuters China39;s economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5 in 2025 and cool further to 4.2 in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending U.S. tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product GDP likely grew 4.9 in 2024 largely meeting the government39;s annual growth target of around 5, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world39;s secondlargest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as Presidentelect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

Potential U.S. tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China39;s growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption, analysts at UBS said in a note.

We also foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.

Growth likely improved to 5.0 in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the thirdquarter39;s 4.6 pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6 in…