China39;s Q4 GDP growth seen at 5.0, vs 4.6 in Q3
2024 growth estimated at 4.9, largely meeting official target
GDP, Dec activity data due 0200 GMT on Friday
2025 outlook clouded by trade tensions as Trump returns
Policymakers pledge to ramp up stimulus this year

BEIJING, Jan 17 Reuters China39;s economy likely rebounded in the fourth quarter as several rounds of policy stimulus kicked in, enabling the government to largely meet its 2024 growth target, though the risk of new U.S. tariffs could hold back a broader recovery.

A Reuters poll predicts gross domestic product GDP grew 5.0 in OctoberDecember from a year earlier, quickening from the 4.6 pace in the third quarter.

Fullyear economic expansion was expected to come in at 4.9, largely meeting the official target of around 5, the poll found. The economy grew 5.2 in 2023.

Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said Beijing39;s policy pivot in September underscored its resolve to defend the growth target. Beijing has rarely missed its growth targets in the past.

Thanks to this, GDP growth in the fourthquarter may rebound above 5 yearonyear, so that fullyear GDP growth could reach the target of around 5, Hu said in a note.

If 2025 GDP target is set at around 5 again, how much policymakers will do to stimulate the weak track consumptionproperty will depend on the impact from tariffs on the strong track exportsmanufacturing.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6 in the fourth quarter,…