ENGALURU, April 11 Reuters The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two backtoback halfpoint interest rate hikes in May and June to tackle runaway inflation, according to economists polled by Reuters who also say the probability of a recession next year is 40.

With the unemployment rate near a record low, inflation the highest in four decades and a surge in global commodity prices set to persist, most analysts say the Fed needs to move quickly to keep price pressures under control.

The latest April 48 Reuters poll of more than 100 economists forecast two halfpoint rate rises this year, the first such move since 1994, taking the federal funds rate to 1.251.50 by the June meeting.

That brings the endyear prediction from the March Reuters poll at least three months forward, and more in line with interest rate futures pricing.

A strong majority, or 85 of 102 economists, forecast 50 basis points in May, and a stillsolid majority of 56 said the Fed would follow up with 50 basis points as well in June.

Given the shift in official commentary and with inflation pressures visible throughout the economy, we believe the Fed will deliver halfpoint interest rate increases at the May, June and July policy meetings, said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

While the central bank, chaired by Jerome Powell, is likely to gear down to quarterpoint moves in the second half of this year, the federal funds rate is now expected to end 2022 at 2.002.25, 50 basis…