Policy rate seen at 14 at end2022
Inflation at 54 in February
RussiaUkraine conflict risks further pressure on prices

ISTANBUL, March 17 Reuters Turkey39;s central bank is expected to hold its policy rate at 14 this week, a unanimous Reuters poll showed on Monday, despite the Ukraine conflict and soaring energy prices that are set to send domestic inflation well beyond last month39;s 54.

Most economists polled expect the key interest rate to remain steady through year end, reflecting no apparent Uturn in President Tayyip Erdogan39;s unorthodox economic policy plan.

The central bank paused an easing cycle in January after its cuts totaling 500 basis points last year sparked a currency crisis in November and December, sending inflation to 20year highs.

Prices surged across the board as the lira lost 44 against the dollar last year and another 10 so far in 2022, mainly due to initial fallout from Russia39;s invasion of Ukraine, which has compounded Turkey39;s economic turmoil. 

Economists see inflation rising to near 70 as the lira declines and energy prices add further pressure. But they say a rate hike is off the cards, given Erdogan39;s aversion to high borrowing costs.

All 18 economists in the Reuters poll predicted the central bank will keep its oneweek repo rate unchanged on Thursday at 14, where it was set in December. The easing cycle began in September when it was cut from 19.

The rate cuts were part of Erdogan39;s new economic programme that prioritises a…