CAIRO, April 21 Reuters Egypt39;s economy will grow 5.3 in the fiscal year ending in June but the pace will ease to 5.2 in 202223 and 5.0 in 202324 as tourism falls and commodity prices and interest rates rise, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The planning ministry in November expected growth to reach 5.6 this fiscal year, and the finance ministry said in January it was aiming for 5.7 growth in its 202223 fiscal year draft budget.

But last month the planning ministry lowered its real gross domestic product GDP growth target for 202223 to 5.5, citing the effects of the RussiaUkraine conflict. 

A Reuters poll three months ago had forecast 202122 growth of 5.2.

One of the world39;s top wheat importers, Egypt imported most of its grain from Russia and Ukraine, which also supplied a large number of its tourists.

Meanwhile, the Russian invasion prompted investors to pull billions of dollars out of Egypt39;s treasury market.

Prolonged high food and fuel prices may restrict consumer spending. Significant loss of tourism from Europe and Russia may dampen economic growth. Rising interest rates may curtail investment, said Garbis Iradian of the Institute of International Finance IIF.

Tourism was devastated by the COVID19 pandemic, with revenue plummeting to 4.9 billion in 202021 from 9.9 billion a year earlier. It bounced back to 5.8 billion in JulyDecember 2021. 

In the latest Reuters poll, economists expected annual urban consumer price inflation of 8.2 in 202122, 9.8…