BENGALURU, May 5 Reuters The dollar will retain most of its recent gains for at least another six months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists who for years mostly held the view the greenback would weaken.
Last trading just below a 20year high it hit last week, the dollar index is up over 14.0 since the start of last year, with about half of those struck this year alone.
That rally shows few signs of abating as the Federal Reserve just delivered a muchanticipated 50 basis point rate hike and left the door open for several such moves in coming months to tame the highest inflation in four decades.
While it is true that a lot of monetary tightening has been priced into the dollar, which would normally suggest more limited upside room…at the same time, we think that we definitely wouldn39;t exclude more hawkish repricing in terms of the terminal rate, for example, towards the 4.0 mark, said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.
We think that the dollar strength induced by Fed tightening will last as long as the Fed doesn39;t start pushing back against market pricing in terms of the terminal rate.
The Fed funds rate, now at 0.751.00, has far to go based on that analysis.
Expectations for the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades have roiled global financial markets, sending the benchmark SP 500 down over 10.0 for the year and U.S. Treasury yields to threeyear highs near 3.0.
While higher Treasury yields were expected to keep the dollar wellbid…