Rates as of 0500 GMT

Russia

Russias Victory Day parade came and went without the gamechanging announcement that many had feared. I have to say many had feared because I wrote about the possibility and I dont want to look stupid. Nonetheless, the fact that there wasnt such an announcement is important too, because reportedly Putin had told his generals to produce a victory by May 9th, and they couldnt.

The speech only rolled out the tired old tropes lies, such as NATO is going to attack Crimea, Donbas, then Russia; Nazis are everywhere, but especially in Ukraine; and the West is weak.

On the other hand, the troop and equipment parade seemed smaller than in previous years. There was no aircraft Zpattern overflight and no flight of the doomsday aircraft, Putins aerial command center. This was attributed to bad weather but in fact the weather was quite good. They announced ahead of time that there would be three T14 Armata tanks in the parade but there were only two did one break down? And General Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Defence Minister, was absent hes rumored to have been wounded.

It looks from this like Putin knows hes losing militarily, diplomatically, and economically, as well as perhaps the propaganda war. His domestic support is teetering and he cant redouble his efforts. On the contrary he may be looking for a way out. This is good news, although far too early to count on it coming true.

Meanwhile, a US Defense Department…