Rates as of 0500 GMT

Wheat market

I was interviewed this morning by Dubai One TV on the subject of wheat. The price has soared since India announced that it would halt exports. The country is the worlds secondlargest wheat grower China is 1 but it hasnt been a major exporter it normally grows what it consumes. This year though they thought they had an opportunity to go into the world market. Ukraine and Russia together export some 33mn tonnes of wheat. India was aiming to ship 10mn tonnes, which would have gone a long way to making up the global shortage caused by the Ukraine war. However a heatwave has decimated the Indian wheat crop, sending prices there to a record high, and the country decided to ban exports except in certain cases for lowerincome countries that require wheat for food security needs.

What we are seeing in the wheat market is global warming intersecting with geopolitics. According to the US Department of Agriculturals World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates WASDE

The global wheat outlook for 202223 is for lower supplies and consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks. Global production is forecast at 774.8 million tons, 4.5 million lower than in 202122. Reduced production in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco is only partly offset by increases in Canada, Russia, and the United States

US wheat supplies for example are expected to be down 3 from the previous year.

However, the WASDE report is already out of date. It forecast that…