PARISLONDON, June 13 Reuters Valneva39;s shares dived about 20 on Monday after the French drugmaker warned that the future of its COVID19 vaccine was in jeopardy. 

Valneva has been trying to salvage a deal with the European Commission which had said it would terminate an advance purchase agreement for 60 million doses. But Valneva said on Monday that initial signs from the Commission suggested volumes would not be enough to sustain the firm39;s vaccine programme.

It said that if this reduced order was confirmed, it would not be able to enter into an amended agreement.

This is clearly a disappointing development, Rx Securities said in a note, after previously forecasting more than 400 million euros 419 million in COVID vaccine sales, mostly relating to the contract with the Commission.

Our forecasts no longer assume any vaccine revenues from sales to the EC, it said in a note.

Valneva39;s vaccine programme was hit by delays in its marketing application after the European Medicines Agency EMA sought more information. EMA has since then accepted the application but Valneva missed the Commission39;s April deadline for European approval. An EMA recommendation on whether the vaccine should be approved is now expected on June 21.

Britain39;s cancelled its Valneva contract in 2021, although the company has secured approvals in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

Valneva39;s vaccine uses technology already employed for decades in shots against polio, influenza and…