Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

Well, its byebye Boris! I had expected that his departure would cause some nearterm uncertainty and thereby cause the pound to weaken, although in the longer term his departure would probably be seen as a Good Thing and cause GBP to strengthen not least because perhaps the next person will be able to do a better job in negotiating with the EU over Northern Ireland. Looking at the cross rates below, the FX market apparently skipped the first part and went right to the second part.

Whos going to be the next PM? According to the site oddschecker.com, which aggregates the odds from various betting sites in the UK, Ben Wallace is the clear frontrunner.

A YouGov survey of 716 Conservative Party members turned up the same frontrunner. And although Wallace has only a modest lead in this poll, when placed in a onetoone choice against the others, he clearly dominates. For example, 48 of the people polled favored him vs Penny Mordaunt, the 2 candidate in this poll, vs only 26 who favored her. Similarly, 51 favored Wallace over Sunak, the 2 in the betting odds, vs only 30 who favored Sunak.

Mr. Wallace is a former soldier currently serving as Secretary of State for Defence. He declined to say if hed run, insisting that he was just going to concentrate on doing his job. hahaha

Although Wallace was an early supporter of Johnson, theres one big difference between them Wallace supported Remain in the Brexit referendum, although he later voted…