Feb 8 Reuters Rating agency Fitch has revised its forecast for China39;s economic growth in 2023 to 5.0 from 4.1 previously as consumption and broader activity are recovering faster than initially anticipated after the end of the zeroCOVID regime.
Fitch said the recovery will be primarily led by consumption, noting that many highfrequency indicators have recently rebounded though still remain below prepandemi norms.
Despite the forecast upgrade, the rating agency expected the economic rebound this year to be less vigorous than that in 2021, when the economy posted GDP growth of 8.4.
Fitch was the first major rating agency to upgrade China39;s 2023 economic growth forecast. SP Global expected the economy to remain on track for 4.8 GDP growth in 2023, in line with its November baseline while Moody39;s has retained its November forecast of 4.0 expansion.
This reflects in part ongoing weakness in the property market, which showed little evidence of an improvement in sales or housing starts in late 2022, despite a buildup of incremental policy support, Fitch said in a statement.
In addition, net trade may become a drag on economic growth in 2023, Fitch added, with export demand being depressed by economic slowdowns in the United States and the Europe.
The direction of fiscal policy would remain uncertain ahead of the a parliament meeting in March, Fitch said.
Premier Li Keqiang pledged last week that the government will work to consolidate and expand the economic…