Q1 GDP growth forecast 4.95 yy, vs 5.01 in Q4
Q1 GDP forecast 1.00 qq, vs 0.36 in Q4
Data due on Friday, May 5

BENGALURU, May 3 Reuters Indonesian annual economic growth likely slowed to its weakest in more than a year in JanuaryMarch and shrank on a quarterly basis as lower commodity prices hit exports and higher interest rates restricted domestic demand, a Reuters poll found.

Southeast Asia39;s largest economy grew 4.95 in the first quarter from a year ago, according to the median forecast of 23 economists polled April 26May 2. Gross domestic product GDP growth forecasts ranged from 4.23 to 5.20.

The economy is also forecast to have contracted quarteronquarter for the first time in a year, by 1.0, based on a smaller sample of 11 economists. That follows 0.36 growth in the OctoberDecember period.

The data will be released on May 5.

GDP growth slowed in yy terms in the final quarter of last year and we think that weakness continued into Q1. Lower commodity prices have weighed heavily on exports, noted Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.

Looking ahead, we expect GDP growth to slow…as weak external demand and tighter monetary policy drag on output.

Growth was forecast to average 4.9 this year and 5.0 next, a recent separate Reuters poll found, slightly lower than the International Monetary Fund39;s estimates of 5.0 and 5.1.

Exports from the resourcerich country rose to a record high last year on soaring global commodity prices, but…