SINGAPORE, June 5 Reuters A global shortfall in crude oil supply is set to deepen in the third quarter as the world39;s top exporter Saudi Arabia pledged extra output cuts from July in a move likely to push Brent towards 100 a barrel by the end of the year, analysts said.

Oil prices jumped more than 1 a barrel on Monday as the Saudi energy ministry said on Sunday its output would drop to 9 million barrels per day bpd in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the kingdom39;s biggest reduction in years.

The voluntary cut pledged by Saudi is on top of a broader deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia to extend production cuts into 2024 as the group seeks to boost flagging oil prices.

Saudi Arabia has a track record of delivering on material cuts, RBC Capital39;s Helima Croft said in a note.

Hence, we would expect the full 1 million bpd unilateral cut to hit the market in July, nearly doubling the true physical reduction we have seen from the producer group since October.

The move has paved the way to tighter supplies and put a 70 a barrel floor under prices, analysts said, however the Saudi cut is not likely to drive prices sharply higher immediately as it will take time for inventories to be drawn down.

With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low by cutting production, we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar…