JOHANNESBURG, July 6 Reuters Emerging market currencies will hold on to gains into next year provided their respective central banks hold or only moderately prune alreadyhigh interest rates that have boosted carry trades, a Reuters poll found on Thursday.
The June 30July 5 poll of 52 currency strategists found as long as most emerging market central banks wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve to finish hiking its own rates, this year39;s carry trade returns should be safe.
Carry trading strategies have investors borrowing in currencies where interest rates are low to invest where yields are high, often emerging markets. But liquidity needs to be plentiful, with minimal volatility and little fear of global recession.
Most of the currencies surveyed, like the Thai baht, Indian rupee and South Africa39;s heavily battered rand, were seen holding on to recent gains by year end.
Latin American currencies are also set to keep relatively strong in coming months, as the Brazilian real is underpinned by rosier economic prospects and budget reforms, while Mexico39;s peso thrives on foreign capital relocating from China.
Even the Chinese yuan is expected to gain 3.5 to 7 in six months, despite its central bank cutting rates just a few weeks ago.
The prospect of U.S. Fed policymakers adding at least two further rate hikes before the end of this year will remain a worry for investors, particularly if more than what is already priced into financial markets materialises.
Still, a few…