PREVIOUS TRADING DAY EVENTS 06 July 2023

According to the ADP National Employment Report US Private Sector Employment increased by 497K Jobs in June, way more than expected, indicating that the labour market is actually pretty strong despite growing risks of a recession from higher interest rates.

Despite the Feds fastest monetary policy tightening campaign in more than 40 years, the labour market is showing remarkable resilience. 

Initial jobless claims were reported high again, almost as expected. 248K Americans filed for firsttime unemployment claims last week. These are significantly lower numbers than the ones reported in the middle of June showing 260K. These recent data suggest lower and lower numbers in claims adding to the evidence for labour market strengthening.   

Source httpswww.reuters.commarketsususprivatepayrollsbeatexpectationsjuneadp20230706

These employment and claims reports made it more likely that the Federal Reserve would resume raising interest rates.

Demand for new hires remains elevated and employers are still holding onto the workers they have, said Nick Bunker, research director at Indeed Hiring Lab. The data continue to make a softlanding scenario increasingly likely.

An anticipated rise in layoffs on more restrictive monetary policy is not yet appearing in the data, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. A tight labour market will keep the rate path on an upward…