July rate hike seen as a done deal
September move up in the air
Inflation pressures still strong but recession risk rising

FRANKFURT, July 27 Reuters The European Central Bank will raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row on Thursday and keep the door open to further moves as persistent inflation and growing evidence of an economic downturn pull policymakers in opposing directions.

Fighting off a historic surge in prices, the ECB has lifted borrowing costs by 4 percentage points since last July and essentially promised another quarterpoint increase this month, making the outcome of Thursday39;s meeting a nearcertainty.

But the central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro is likely to ditch its practice of signalling its next move, promising a datadependent, meetingbymeeting approach instead. That will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming in September or if July marks the end of the ECB39;s fastestever tightening spree.

One thing is clear, however the end of rate increases is fast approaching and the debate appears to be about just one more small move before rates are kept steady for what some policymakers think will be a long time.

The ECB39;s problem is that inflation is coming down too slowly and could take until 2025 to fall back to 2, as a price surge initially driven by energy has seeped into the broader economy via large markups and is fuelling the cost of services.

While overall inflation is now just half its October…