LONDON, Sept 13 Reuters Oil output cuts which Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended to the end of 2023 will mean a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency IEA said on Wednesday, as it largely stuck by its estimates for demand growth this year and next.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC, began limiting supplies in 2022 to bolster the market. This month, benchmark Brent crude breached 90 a barrel for the first time this year after OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their combined 1.3 million barrel per day bpd cuts until the end of 2023.

Output curbs by OPEC members of more than 2.5 million bpd since the start of 2023 have so far been offset by higher supplies from producers outside the alliance, including the United States, Brazil and still undersanctions Iran, the agency said.

But from September onwards, the loss of OPEC production… will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter, it said in its monthly oil report.

However, the lack of cuts at the start of next year would shift the balance to a surplus, the agency said, highlighting that stocks will be at uncomfortably low levels, increasing the risk of another surge in volatility in a fragile economic environment.

CHAOTIC FORECASTING

Broader economic concerns, led by China39;s sluggish postpandemic recovery, have been amplified by worries that interest rates will remain high in the United States.

Still, oil demand at the world39;s…