Sept 15 Reuters A walkout by more than 12,000 autoworkers on Friday could slow an outperforming U.S. economy should it drag on even risking the first monthly net drop in payroll employment in nearly three years but is unlikely on its own to trigger a recession.

Economists see the most immediate risk to activity concentrated in the auto sector itself, which only this year got back on its feet after two years when pandemicrelated supply chain bottlenecks hampered vehicle output. With dealer inventories restrained, sales of new cars and trucks slumped even as consumer demand remained strong.

After failing to reach a deal on a new contract with Detroit39;s Big Three automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, the United Auto Workers union went on strike on Friday at three plants in three states. The stoppage for now affects about 12,700 hourly employees.

Should it widen in the weeks ahead to include all 146,000 UAW members at the three companies, it could become the largest automotive industry strike in a quarter century since more than 150,000 GM workers went off the job for nearly two months in 1998.

That would put at risk half a billion dollars per day in an economy that generates more than 26.7 trillion in goods and services each year, or more than 73 billion per day, RSM39;s chief U.S. economist Joe Brusuelas estimated this week.

RSM estimates the U.S. economy would suffer a modest 0.2 drag to annualized growth of gross domestic product this quarter should…