BENGALURUJOHANNESBURG, Nov 8 Reuters Emerging market currencies will take well into next year to start making noticeable gains against a retreating U.S. dollar, despite a growing view the interest rate cycle has peaked, a Reuters poll of FX strategists showed.
After getting battered for most of 2023, emerging market EM currencies have made modest gains against the dollar after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week and data suggested the U.S. economy might finally be slowing.
That dollar weakening trend was likely to hold in the nearterm as a majority of analysts in the Nov. 37 Reuters poll expected the dollar to trade lower by yearend.
However, with most EM central banks expected to follow the Fed and cut rates next year, their respective currencies were unlikely to recoup doubledigit losses they have accumulated over the past couple of years.
We39;ve seen already some pretty sharp gains last week, but the recent gains aren39;t extending because there is still uncertainty about the Fed … and at the same time the U.S. is still performing better than most other economies, said Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX EM Macro Strategy Asia at Barclays.
So it39;s difficult to see the EM currencies recoup some of the sharp losses that we39;ve seen in the last few months. That said, we do expect some gains, it39;s just going to be a bit more of a gradual path.
This excludes the Russian rouble , which has lost 27 this year, and the Turkish lira , which is down…