MUMBAI, Nov 16 Reuters The sharp widening in India39;s merchandise trade deficit in October to a record level, fuelled by a broadbased rise in imports, will likely be an outlier, analysts said.

India39;s merchandise trade deficit rose to an alltime high of 31.46 billion in October, widening sharply from the 19.37 billion print in the prior month. Imports jumped from 65 billion from 53.8 billion.

On a sequential basis, about 70 of the uptick in imports in October is led by oil, gold and silver imports, Morgan Stanley said in a note. The increase in gold and sliver imports can potentially be attributed to certain lumpiness in demand ahead of the Diwali festive season, it added.

On the increase in oil imports, IDFC First Bank said it probably reflects some frontloading of imports with crude oil prices having declined in October.

On a monthly annualised basis, India39;s trade deficit rose to 10.4 of GDP in October from 6.4 of GDP in September.

Despite the shock on the trade deficit front, we retain our FY24 current account deficit CAD estimate at 1.9 of GDP, Gaura Sen Gupta, economist at IDFC First Bank, said.

This is because the October print is likely to be a oneoff, with gems and jewellery imports likely to normalize from November onwards.

Further, the easing of oil prices provides a bit of buffer, Gupta said. Brent crude is down about 8 in November, having fallen by about the same margin last month.

Morgan Stanley said the elevated October trade deficit was…