Says base case is voluntary group cut is left unchanged
Sees 35 subjective probability major OPEC producers may announce deeper group cut

Nov 22 Reuters Goldman Sachs says the possibility of a deeper group oil output cut is on the table when OPEC oil producers meet this weekend, and it expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to announce an extension of their additional voluntary curbs through at least the first quarter of 2024.

Ministers from OPEC nations and other oilproducing countries led by Russia, a group known as OPEC, are due to meet on Sunday to decide on output policy. Oil prices stayed within a narrow range ahead of the meeting.

Our base case is that policymakers leave the voluntary group cut unchanged given nearaverage inventory levels and timespreads, an already low Saudi market share, and OPECs strong demand forecast, the Wall Street bank said in a note on Tuesday.

It said there is a significant 35 subjective probability that major OPEC producers may announce a deeper group cut on Sunday, adding that OPEC policymakers may want to take out insurance against the possibility that Brent prices drop below 80bbl amid weaker seasonal demand in Q1.

Goldman says that an announcement of a deeper cut could be shared across major OPEC producers and cover a relatively short period and be moderate in size.

One option is a 0.51 million bpd cut through Q1 shared proportionally among the large producers which cut in April, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, and…