BEIJING, Dec 20 Reuters China39;s surging oil production growth in recent years, the result of a concerted investment push, is expected to ease in 2024 as falling output from mature fields requires state oil companies to tap more challenging shale and ultradeep reserves.

While China is the world39;s biggest crude importer, it was also the world39;s sixthlargest crude oil producer last year, according to the EI Statistical Review of World Energy, with heavy investment helping to reverse a significant decline between 2015 and 2018.

Production for 2023 at around 4.18 million barrels per day bpd remains below the 2015 record of 4.3 million bpd, but Goldman Sachs said that the upside surprise of China39;s output trails only the higherthanexpected production this year from the U.S., Iran and Russia.

For next year, analysts and agencies are divided on the outlook, with forecasts ranging from a drop in output by as much as 31,000 bpd or increase of up to 60,000 bpd, a growth slowdown that is likely to increase China39;s import dependency.

The majority of China39;s oil fields are in a mature phase, facing natural production declines, while the scarcity of substantial new discoveries poses a challenge to sustaining longterm production growth at current rates, said Rystad Energy analyst Lin Chen.

After a 12 drop in output between 2015 and 2018, national oil companies Sinopec Corp , PetroChina and CNOOC Ltd ploughed cash into increased recovery at existing fields and…