LONDON, Jan 2 Reuters Euro zone factories ended 2023 on the back foot, with activity contracting in December for an 18th straight month, according to a survey which gave scant signs of any imminent strong bounceback in an economy likely in recession.

HCOB39;s final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers39; Index PMI, compiled by SP Global, did nudge up to 44.4 in December from November39;s 44.2 but remained firmly below the 50 mark separating growth in activity from contraction.

A preliminary estimate was for no change from November.

An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Thursday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, dipped to 44.4 from November39;s final reading of 44.6 but was ahead of the 44.1 flash estimate.

The pessimistic trend strongly pointed to a contraction in euro zone GDP last quarter, Hamburg Commercial Bank39;s chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia said. The bloc39;s economy contracted 0.1 in the third quarter, official data has shown, so a second quarter of contraction would meet the definition of recession.

Amid a relentless slump in the manufacturing sector of the euro zone, the HCOB PMI has shown little improvement compared to November. It paints a bleak picture for the euro zone and would mean that the euro zone entered a recession in the third quarter, de la Rubia said.

The 20country euro zone will endure a short and shallow winter recession, an early December Reuters poll found.

An ongoing decline in new…