Jan 22 Reuters The U.S economy should avoid a recession in the coming year, according to an increasingly large majority of economists polled by the National Association of Business Economics.

Some 91 of respondents to the latest NABE survey, published on Monday, assigned a probability of 50 or less to the U.S. entering a recession over the next 12 months.

That was up from 79 in the October survey, and a far cry from the view a year ago, when a majority of economists expected a recession as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight high inflation.

The rising optimism apparent in the survey is in line with much of the latest economic data, including a measure of consumer sentiment that last week rose to a 2 12year high. Also, inflation has been falling faster than expected, and the labor market is cooling but not collapsing.

Fed policymakers, who have held the policy rate in its current 5.255.5 range since July, have signaled they are likely to cut rates this year as long as inflation continues to drop.

Economists polled by NABE expect corporate sales and profit margins to rise this year, and say supply chain problems and labor shortages are easing, potentially positive news for the inflation outlook.

Some 63 of respondents in the latest survey reported no shortages of input materials, up from 46 three months ago; and just over half of respondents reported no labor shortages, up from 38 from the prior report. Both are among the best readings since the…