TOKYO, Feb 2 Reuters Japan39;s economy likely swung back to growth in the OctoberDecember period, helped by a slight pickup in external demand, though analysts warned private consumption remains fragile, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The expected return to expansion, albeit modest, would come at a time when the Bank of Japan is debating the likelihood of a nearterm exit from its massive stimulus programme, and is closely monitoring upcoming wage talks and consumer spending.

Gross domestic product GDP in the world39;s thirdlargest economy was expected to have expanded by an annualised 1.4 in the fourth quarter, after contracting 2.9 in JulySeptember, according to the median forecast of 16 economists in the poll.

On a quarteronquarter basis, the economy grew 0.3 in OctoberDecember period.

The recovery is not strong enough to regain from the 0.7 decline annualised 2.9 in JulySeptember, said Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.

The moderate reading expected likely reflected weak growth in capital expenditure and soft consumption as inflation continued to outpace wage growth. At the same time, an increase in external demand thanks to solid performance in service exports boosted the overall figure, analysts said.

Consumption probably rose 0.1 in OctoberDecember from the previous quarter after slipping 0.2 in the JulySeptember period, the poll showed.

Capital expenditure was believed to have risen 0.3 in the fourth…