LONDON, Feb 16 Reuters Even in a year littered with political risks, the reworking of world trade routes with a friendshoring twist and handsome real interest rate premia have Mexico39;s peso behaving like a supercharged dollar.
Fresh from its biggest annual gain against U.S. dollar since 1989 last year, the super peso which President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and others have dubbed it has climbed 20 on the greenback over the past two years and retained that six weeks into 2024 at least.
Given that the wider basket of emerging market currencies has dropped more than 1 against the dollar over the same period, the scale of outperformance of the world39;s third mosttraded emerging currency is clear.
And as it accounts for almost 14 of the dollar39;s broad tradeweighted index, that packs a punch.
With both Mexican and U.S. Presidential elections due later in the year and domestic interest rate cuts in the wings, the risks of some reversal may seem obvious.
And yet the peso39;s interest rate protection remains immense as the Bank of Mexico has so far resisted moves by other big emerging market central banks to preempt U.S. Federal Reserve easing possibly waiting for the Fed to move as it keeps a lid on a near 5 domestic inflation rate.
But that has meant Mexico39;s key policy rate of 11.25 remains more than twice the Fed equivalent with a real inflationadjusted rate still more than 6, more than twice that north of the border too.
Even though regional neighbours…