KARACHI, March 14 Reuters Pakistan39;s central bank is widely expected to hold its key interest rate at a record 22 for the sixth straight policy meeting on Monday as inflation risks continue to loom, but a majority of analysts expect rate cuts from the second quarter of this year.

Monday39;s policy decision would be the last ahead of the April expiry of a 3 billion Stand by Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund.

The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 17 analysts predicts the State Bank of Pakistan SBP will hold rates steady.

Three analysts are forecasting a 100basispoint bps cut, while one expects a 25bps cut on Monday. Fourteen of those surveyed expect a rate cut in the AprilJune quarter.

Pakistan39;s key rate was last raised in June to fight persistent inflationary pressures and to meet one of the conditions set by the IMF for securing the bailout.

The country39;s consumer price index for February rose 23.1 year on year, its slowest rate since June 2022, partly due to the base effect.

Several inflationary risks loom large, including the potential implementation of sales tax on petroleum products, heightened food inflation during Ramadan, and the prospect of entering a new IMF program, Saad Hanif, deputy head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, said.

In January, the central bank raised the average inflation forecast for the fiscal year ending in June to 2325, from a previous projection of 2022, due to rising gas and electricity prices….