BEIJING, April 1 Reuters China39;s 18.6 trillion economy has skirted some nearterm downside risks as suggested by recent indicators, analysts said, buying officials more time to convince investors they can fire up a new growth engine for 2024 and the years ahead.
Economic data over the JanuaryFebruary period and a factory owners survey for March offered relief to Chinese policymakers seeking to convince foreign investors they could rekindle the world39;s No.2 economy after it failed to post a sustainable recovery following Beijing abandoning strict COVID curbs in late 2022.
But analysts and investors are cautious while things might not be getting worse, unless officials can figure out how to get it to fire on all cylinders again, the market once seen as the engine of global growth will stall later in the year.
China has taken a series of steps to invigorate its economy, including guiding banks to lend more to highend manufacturing rather than real estate and reducing the amount banks must hold in reserve, but such policy measures are becoming less effective and could even be scaled back, they said.
China is pushing to have a normal 2024. They know they can still export, and they know that if they push this year, they can buy themselves time, said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for the Asia Pacific at Natixis,.
But China cannot grow more than last year, and it never will, as the fiscal cost of growing more than it did in 2023 is so huge, she added. China39;s…