May 28 Reuters As millions seek access to weightloss drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, increasing supplies, possible wider usage and a growing number of wouldbe rivals are leading some experts to raise annual global sales forecasts for the treatments to about 150 billion by the early 2030s.

A year ago, top sales estimates were in the 100 billion range.

It is very unusual to have a medicine that is capturing the imagination of millions of people, said Michael Kleinrock, senior research director at healthcare analytics firm IQVIA Institute for Data Science.

Most insurers do not cover the new therapies with low copayments, but an unprecedented percentage of people are paying themselves or with coupons from drug manufacturers, he said.

Global spending on obesity medications totaled 24 billion last year, IQVIA estimated in its latest fiveyear outlook, and could reach 131 billion by 2028. That 27 annual growth estimate compares with a prior projection of 13.

Without insurance coverage expansion, IQVIA put the low end of global obesitydrug spending at 39 billion in 2028 versus a more likely 74 billion.

Kleinrock said reaching 131 billion will also depend on how long patients stay on a drug, whether the medications are used to treat other diseases, or even development of new directtoconsumer sales models.

Shortages that capped sales in 2023 are being resolved, he said, although sales are still limited in large part only by manufacturing capacity.

Supplies of both…