BEIJING, Reuters China39;s factory activity likely shrank for a third month in July, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, keeping alive expectations officials will need to release further stimulus as a protracted property crisis and job insecurity drag on growth.

The official purchasing managers39; index PMI was forecast at 49.3, down from June39;s reading of 49.5, according to the median forecast of 31 economists in the poll. The 50point mark separates growth from contraction in activity.

The world39;s secondlargest economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter, with the consumer sector a particular cause for concern. Retail sales growth sank to an 18month low as deflationary pressures forced businesses to slash prices on everything from cars to food to clothes.

While half of the 300 billion yuan 41.40 billion in ultralong treasury bonds China39;s state planner announced on Thursday will be allocated to support a programme of consumer tradeins, that amount is seen as too little to meaningfully boost economic recovery, as it is equivalent to just 0.12 of economic output and 0.3 of 202339;s retail sales.

Solid Chinese exports have provided some support to factory managers in recent months and propped up progress towards the government39;s growth target of around 5, but as a growing number of trade partners mull import tariffs, the jury is out on whether that boost can be sustained.

Outbound shipments grew at their fastest pace in 15 months in June, while…