Rate cut forecasts volatile as U.S. dollar jumps after Trump win
India cbank seen intervening heavily Tuesday to shore up rupee
Policy tradeoffs rate cut could spur inflation, outflows
MUMBAI, Jan 15 Reuters Some analysts are pushing back expectations for interest rate cuts in India as the rupee39;s slump to record lows fans worries about inflation, even as growth in Asia39;s thirdlargest economy slows.
The weaker currency could add to elevated inflation through costlier imports, while a cut in interest rates could dampen already tepid capital flows, they said.
A majority of analysts polled by Reuters in November had expected Indian rates to be cut in February at the earliest, but the rapid currency slump has prompted many analysts to change their calls. The rate panel next meets on Feb 57.
The rupee has lost about 3 of its value against the surging U.S. dollar in a little over two months since Trump39;s victory, a sharp contrast to nearly two years of relative stability and muted volatility.
We push back our call for 50 basis points of repo rate cuts to AprilJune from FebruaryApril, Standard Chartered said in a note this month, citing external sector volatility as one of the reasons.
According to the Reserve Bank of India39;s estimates, a 5 depreciation in the rupee can push up inflation by 35 basis points over several months.
As the first MPC monetary policy committee meeting under the new Governor Sanjay Malhotra comes closer, some doubts have risen over…